Luck?!?!!????

Very interesting things I've been hearing about the concept of luck. This post falls under the category of poker imitating life or is it the other way around?

Bill Gates was asked; "To what extent was it just pure luck that Microsoft became as big as powerful as it did?" His response was that luck played a big part. It was luck that he developed computer skills as a youth instead of some other skill such as tiddlywinks. It was luck that he hooked up with the perfect partner. It was luck that he got into the marketplace just as the personal computer was taking off.

Sergei Brin was asked to what extent was luck the reason Google got as big as it has gotten. He answered that it was lucky that he found the perfect partner. It was lucky that he got into the market at the right time. etc.

All the time we hear that luck is so important in poker. Sure its important. Its important in every human endeavor. There is no getting around the fact that much of human course depends on factors that are not in that humans control. i.e. luck comes into play. Now is it 100% luck that Gates and Brin were successful? No, of course not. They were good at the skills they needed and were hard working and creative. But those factors alone do not guarantee success by any stretch. You gotta have a little luck. The more the better.

Then it comes to how you define luck. Is it luck (bad) that I lose all my chips to a loose player when I have the second nut flush when he's got the nut flush. Well kinda. But I was never ahead and many would argue that I was outplayed to certain extent. But luck was a certainly a factor.

More often we think of luck when we are ahead in the hand. Top set against a straight draw kinda thing. But this is the weakness of the unpatient, inexperienced player. Luck happens. My favorite player handling luck is Chris "Jesus" Ferguson. I've seen him lose with a full ouse on the flop to a runner runner higher full house (1:90 Leader). He simply stood up, shook his opponents hand with a smile and walked off. Which is all you can do and all you should do. Your job as a poker player is to get your money in good. i.e. when the odds are in your favor. Then let the probabilities do their thing. You'll win in direct proportion to these odds, which means, more often you will win.

So come on already. Stop sweating the bad beats. They'll happen. And they'll keep those weak players coming back.

Thinking about Time

Do you ever start thinking about a concept and the more you think about it the more mysterious and unknown it becomes? Lately I've been thinking about the concept of time.

I have always noticed (and I'm sure you have noticed it too) how time does not always seem to move at the same pace. When I'm in a good poker game, for instance, time seems to go by quickly. When I'm immersed in a writing project, time moves even quicker. When I'm waiting in the Thai restaurant for my take out order, time slows way down. But is that time itself or how we are perceiving time? Maybe time is only a perception.

But time itself is measured in increments that are supposed to be very specific. Did you know that the "second" is

the duration of 9,192,631,770 periods of the radiation corresponding to the transition between the two hyperfine levels of the ground state of the caesium 133 atom.

It used to be 1/86,400 of one rotation of the earth. Don't ask me how they came up with that. Why 1/86,400 and not 1/100,000? I'm sure the original development of the second was the average time for a human heart to beat once or the touch football concept of saying the word "Mississippi." Then they backed that period of time into the time of the earth to rotate. In any case, this wasn't working out anyway because the time it takes the earth to rotate is lengthening. Our days are getting longer. (Another strange concept.)

The real problem with all these approaches is that time in actuality could be moving faster or slower at different intervals. We can use man-made (artificial) devices to measure it, but we have no idea whether we are accurate.

I was playing at the Borgata the other day and I suffered a bad beat and lost my stake. The usual situation when a set on the flop gets blasted by a flush drawn on the river. Now the first sensation is pain. (I never continue playing after this happens, by the way, and I don't recommend it since poker is a very mental game and your mental state is not ideal.) But as time goes on, the pain dissipates. And it dissipates at different rates for different people. This makes me think that time might be individually based. After all, don't older people feel time as moving faster than young people. The theory being that the unit of time is a much smaller percentage of their entire life span lived so far. Won't a mosquito feel (if a mosquito can "feel.") time very slowly since their entire life span is only a few weeks? So time is relative. Right? But that doesn't really work because time is a universal concept. This brings us to Einstein's Theory of Relativity. Time must have a duel nature.

Which led me to believe that time might be controllable in a certain sense by the individual. We can choose to live fast and make time move fast. But that doesn't make sense to me because why would we want to hasten the time to the day we die. Don't we want time to go slow, so we can savor life and all its amenities?

So I've decided that I will control time. I will take things slow, I'll contemplate my surroundings. I'll enjoy those times when time seems to fall away, but I'll try to savor them to the maximum. I don't think we can ever really understand how time moves. It's just one of those mysteries of life that along with many others that keep me thinking.

Its Over!! . . . Now Back to Business

I'm sure you have all been at the edge of your seats wondering what happened to Neal Gersony's company. Did it sell? Did the purchase fall through? Well it's good news. On December 24th, CEU.com was sold for cash. We do have a few small clean up issues regarding a shareholder who believes we may have booked his share ownership wrong. (It never seems to end.) But the money has been sent out and I'm now the proud owner of no shares of CEU.com and a resigned Board Member to boot.

The first few days after the sale have been a bit hazy. I've been at it for so long. There is a loss of groundedness feeling that has left me feeling like a drifting soul in an endless universe. But isn't that we actually are anyway? Am I not feeling the true feelings of "humanness?" I can do what I want now, I suppose, though the money won't last forever. Its not the big bucks (less then a million) that you hear about in the business pages of The New York Times. But it is reassuring to know there is a big cushion there for my four kids and wife.

So what's next? Well its time to fulfill some of my dreams. We are looking into living on an island off the coast of New Jersey (something I've always wanted to try). I plan to take up sailing. Do some traveling; NYC tomorrow; Philadelphia in a few weeks; Arizona at the end of January; LA in February; Florida in March; a big trip with my middle daughter in April . . . I also plan on getting back into the tournament circuit a little bit - mostly concentrating on Atlantic City + maybe the Main Event (except I usually go camping in the Adirondacks in July). Also might do some painting/sculpture as well as write of course. I have a second novel in the works as well as a detailed "Anatomy of a Tech Start-up" nonfiction book that is just underway.

As one of my favorite running backs of all time said after his retirement, Calvin Hill. "Life is a smorgasbord. You finish one item, its time to try something else." I'm ready to try some new things.

As far as venturing goes, I have an idea for operating a sailing and motor boat co-ownership program on Brigantine Island. I have a ways to go on that one. I also am planning some major additions to my poker course site - stay tuned. Be well all.

Couldn't be Closer to Closing

I never like to go more than a week without blogging. Need to keep regularity in my life and those of my readers. But this week, things really started heating up with the sale of my Internet company.

Its been an emotional roller coaster like you wouldn't believe. The CEO wants to stay on, then he doesn't, then he wants to consult. My senior IT guy doesn't like the Non-Compete contract. The buyers are throwing deadlines at us. People are making promises that aren't being kept. OhMyGoshness . . .

I now have to deal with my closest colleague who is purporting something that isn't. Excuse the vagueness, but these are very confidential and touchy proceedings and I don't want to disclose anything I shouldn't be. It's the nature of the beast. You should be satisfied that you are getting this much. After everything is all said and done, I'll provide you with some of the juicy details.

But my philosophy continues to be - take the high road. Fore go some cash, add on some risk . . . whatever. If my mind is free of negativity its worth it.

The good news is that I was told today that we have a very good chance of closing before Xmas and what a Merry Christmas (even though I'm Jewish) it could be this year. Mazel Tov Jesus!

Going With the Flow

I'm not one who generally likes to follow the crowd. In fact, I mostly look for reasons and excuses to go my own way. I think its genetic. But I've learned that when it comes to certain things in business and poker, going with the flow is an absolute necessary for success as well as your mental health.

In poker, one is often tempted to step out and push hands that shouldn't be pushed. Your tempted to make the "big bet" call when deep down, you know its a bad idea. This can be especially tempting when you're running bad and you are cravng a win. You want that money back that has been draining out of your bankroll, but that money is lost forever. You need to stay disciplined and develop your table image and look for that ideal bluffing situation as it manifests itself organically. You can and will make new money, but never think you going to get old money back.

So you need to stay in the flow of the game, especially in the case of tournament poker. Let things develop. Make low risk bluffs. Splash around. Have fun. Think over and over in your head - Let the tournament come to me. Let the tournament come to me. Of course i get into this in great detail in my poker courses.

In business, transactions have lives of their own. Many deadlines will be set. Very few will actually be made. That's because, the pace of the negotiation or the application or the whatever is in the hands of more than one person and each will have his or her own pace, motivations and manner of handling a deal. And then you have the lawyers. Don't get me started on this topic. These guys are motivated on a whole separate criteria. Billable hours, anal investigation and overkill contingency issues. But sometimes they surprise me and they are actually in synch with the players in the deal. But never, ever, let the lawyers take the lead in a deal. (I'll get more into this another time.)

The reason I bring this up is that the closing date for the sale of my company has come and gone. It was suppose to be December 4th. Now I could sweat and grind my teeth and make lots of phone calls and email inquiries. But I've learned over the years that all these things are counterproductive. Best to sit back and let the deal take the curvy, roundabout course it will inevitably take. In another words - go with the flow. At this point you should have done the work already - the terms have been agreed to, both sides are motivated to complete the transaction, the lawyers have incentives to move things forward, but have no say in how the deal is constructed. It'll happen. If doesn't, it's probably better that way. There was probably a flaw. It's as if your partner (or yourself) had a miscarriage. There was a flaw in development. It wasn't going to be viable. It wasn't meant to be. If its early term - let it go. However, if its very late term, such as my deal, a miscarriage would be a tough nut to swallow. Our latest hurdle, was employment contracts. It caused delays. But it has been worked out and we're heading down the stretch. Everyone wants to close before the first of the year. Who knows where the capital gains tax rate will go in the future. The only thing that we know for sure is that it will go up.

Thanks for letting me vent.

Anticipation

I can't help it if I'm an optimistic kind of guy. Everything, it seems to me, has an upside and a downside (well almost anything). So I always try to find that good piece and focus on that when presented with a situation.

Latey, for instance, I've been on pins and needles about my Internet company. Well its not all mine, but I am the founder and I own the biggest chunk. Anyway, we have a buyer. But we've had this buyer for going on 13 months. Its amazing how these things can get dragged out. If I hear the phrase "due diligence" one more time, I think I'll have a conniption.

At the present time, we are in the home stretch. We've leaped many a hurdle. We are suppose to close on December 4th. But as everyone seems to take great pleasure in reminding me, many things can still go wrong. So what am I suppose to do. I'm not a good multiplexer, so its hard for me to start my next projects - real estate and another book. I do keep my poker learning web site current and updated, however. But its very hard to concentrate when this huge milestone in my life is dangling in front of me, drifting in and out of sight.

But I found the silver lining - enjoy the state of anticipation. It is, after all, a great feeling - often surpassing the thrill of the thing actually happening. Its just a hard concept to get your arms around. So I've meditated on past good things that have happened to me and tried to recreate my emotions prior to the consummation of said event. My conclusion is that its all about the dream. Whether it happens or not (I shouldn't say that - it is going to happen), I think about the travel I'll be doing with my wife, I get excited about playing in some big poker tournaments, I look forward to spending more time with my eldest two daughters, about getting an RV and heading to Canada, about studying the real estate market and making some super shrewd investments. This makes me happy. I've had some happy days just anticipating. Even if it doesn't happen (knock on wood), I have accomplished a very important thing in just being happy for a period of time. After all, happiness and contentment is a state of mind. The richest person in the world can be miserable, while a poverty stricken Chilean can be ecstatic.

This method of thinking about the world suits me. That's why I play poker, especially poker tournaments. I may not make the money time after time, but each time I miss I know it will make that eventual win that much sweeter.

By the way, I am also anticipating a great Thanksgiving this year. Most of my family seem to be getting together for a few days. Hope you have a good one too. Pleasant thoughts to all.

"How" over "How Much"

We all want money. Right? Count me in. In our American world, money is very important. It buys a lot of great stuff. Most of us are focused like a laser on getting as much of it as we can. But a much overlooked aspect of accumulating money is not just the "how much can we get?" but the "how do we get it?"

The knee jerk reaction is: "Who cares? As long as we get it and the more the better." But if you really think about it, the "How" may be more important.

Lets start with the trust-fund, rich kids of the world. Because the money was simply dumped on them, most of them (there are exceptions of course) drift about, looking for excitement through drugs or sex or other high risk behaviors. They don't have the motivation to go out and develop themselves and as a result, many of them are not what I would call happy. They don't reach their potential.

Then you have the lottery winners. If you ever read about what happens to these people after they made their big cash, a majority of them end up in all kinds of trouble, lots of problems and more than a few suicides.

Finally you have the greedy businessperson. They try to screw over anyone and everyone in order to maximize their take on any transaction. They push the limits of legal behavior and, to them, ethics is an academic word only. If you can get away with it, its OK. I'd argue many of these people may put on a facade of happiness with all their material possessions amidst their circle of like-minded "friends." But I'd argue that they are in a constant struggle with their conscience. They seek out therapy. They rationalize. But what's done is done. They can never turn back their misdeeds which become clearer and clearer to them as they approach their inevitable demise.

I'd argue that making a nest egg through honest hard work and effort in which you treat everyone you come into contact with in a fair and open manner should be the goal for everyone. Of course, we really need that first $40,000 every year to survive, especially if you have a family to support. But as that number rises, the money becomes less and less a necessity and more of "an extra." When you start to reach the nosebleed status of making millions and millions, it becomes merely a status symbol - a scorecard. When it comes down to it, our mental state is much more important than the size of our house. It's infinitely worth it to nurture your honest and straight-dealing reputation over striving for money at any cost. Having respect as a result of the quality of your character is an invaluable commodity. It doesn't come easy. Many shortcuts will present themselves. Be a poker player and get a "read" on where each road will potentially lead. You may not get filthy rich, but you'll be happier and more content. After all, who would want to be Russ Hamilton or Bernie Madoff. Keep it.