Freedom

Yes, it is true, I haven't posted in a while. The truth of the matter is that I have had nothing to say. I often wish the media would take that tact sometimes instead of filling the airwaves with crap.

Now I do have something to say, It has to do with our nationally cherished word - freedom. A word that seems simple enough to understand. The ability to do what we want seems to me to be as good a definition as any. As Americans (which is really a false way to refer to citizens of the United States. Aren't Venezuelans Americans as well?), we think that our country is the freest in the world - the freest that ever existed on earth. We have the right to think whatever we want. We have the right to do whatever we want (within the law). etc. It is a glorious concept and country we live in. Unfortunately, slowly and unceasingly our freedom has been eroded over time without us really noticing it. Freedom is disappearing in the United States of America.

Let me explain. As a young person, you are encouraged to select a profession that best suits your interests, needs and talents. But as a young person, you have very little information as to make the best selection. So lets say you select "exterminator." You learn how to exterminate by getting training which you get by borrowing money. Nobody is going to train you for free. You get a job. You climb the slow pay ladder to a reasonably comfortable position. You fall in love and get married. Have kids. Buy a house. Open a retirement account. Now you are saddled with a mortgage, debt to pay for the things all Americans must have - cars, furniture, vacations. Don't forget taxes. The biggest kicker of all is Health Care Insurance. Huge premiums are required to be paid every month. Pay up buddy, or die when you get sick. Now its all over. If it turns out that you hate being an exterminator - too bad for you. You can't go back a pay to train for another career. The debt and other fiscal responsibilities will crush you. Where is your freedom now, Mr. America? You can't pick up and go on that two month cross-country trip you always dreamed of - got to pay the mortgage. No time to write that novel - got to save to send the kiddies to college. No time for nothing. Just work. slave, work.

I know, in the past, I've cautioned anyone who has shown any interest in becoming a professional poker player. I'm changing my tune. Poker is one of the few professions that, if you become proficient, allows you to keep your freedom. You can play when and where you want to. If you have good year or month, you can easily take a year off and do something else. The biggest hurdle to even this last bastion of freedom is this insidious Health Care Insurance we all must pay for. I call it - the great enslaver. Its as much as a mortgage for most households. I would argue that other countries that don't have it are freer countries. Give me the Swedish system, the English system, hell I'll take the French system over ours any day. The people there are freer, they live longer (check that statistics), are healthier and are surely more happy than us.

Don't let the politicians pull the wool over your eyes. A single payer system for health care is the only way to go if you, like me, value real freedom.

Embracing Probabilities

I think the hardest thing for the non-experienced player to understand about poker is the concept that you can lose when you make the right play. So many people have come up to me and said (in essence) "Poker has to be all luck because I was watching a final table on TV and this guy was always ahead when the money went in and he end up in last place." And certainly that is true, often times the player who plays the best is not rewarded. Its seems to go against the meritocracy concept the US is said to embrace.

The thing is poker is all about the concept of probabilities. And probabilities is a concept that seems clear on the surface. If you flip a coin there is a 50% chance that it'll be tails. But the more you burrow into the deep underpinnings of future predicting, it become problematic to many people. Such as the fact that if you flip a coin 20 times in a row and it turns up heads every time, what are the chances that it will be heads on the 21st time? Same as before: 50%. So #1, probabilities are independent events. But at the same time, if you flip that coin 10,000 times, by the laws of math, it'll be heads 5,000 times almost exactly. Wow.

I had a recent run in with the probability monster, actually three run ins. Last week, I get all my money in with pocket kings (about $700). I'm up against Ace-King. I lose to a straight. Three days later I get all my money in (about $1500) with pocket aces against King-King. I lose to a set of kings. Just the day before yesterday I get all my money in with King-King (about $900) versus Ace-Queen and Jack-Jack. I lose when an Ace hits the board. I'm not saying these occurrences aren't painful. They are (for a little while anyway). Poker is a streaky game as is the case for anything involving probabilities.

But the way to consider it is, I think, in terms of a master, lifetime list. When these situations come up, your going to win most of the time, but you are going to lose as well. In the case of the last scenario, you'll win 2 out of every three times AND when you win you'll be getting 2:1 on your money. No real gambler would ever pass that up. But you WILL lose one out of every three times as well. So when you lose, you need to put it into the loss list and forget about it. Its inevitable that it will happen. But probabilities are an immutable law of nature. In the end, you'll be a winning player.

Trust me.

By Feel or by the Book

One of the most difficult aspects of poker is the concept of "feel." World class players, I believe, are born with a natural feel for the game. They understand probabilities intuitively. They find it easy to completely transfer themselves into the head of their opponents. And, maybe most importantly, they have no fear.

There are thousands of very competent players out there. They've learned to compute probabilities quickly and accurately. They have a good poker demeanor (poker face). Pricing opponents out, making big lay downs and value betting are not a problem. But what they don't understand is that those are the easiest parts of playing poker. The real tricky parts are; making the tough call, re-raise bluffing, trusting your read and sticking with a false story and completely immersing yourself into the other person's head. Anyone can win with an ace high flush. Win with a pair of fours and I'll be impressed.

I think one of the reasons that a proportionately higher number of top players come out of Europe rather than the US is that in this country we are so self oriented. We rarely take the time to see the world from another's perspective. Its all about me. Do I have the best car? Should I be making more money? How can I get this guy to do the deal that benefits me the best.

In Europe, people are more concerned about making other people feel comfortable. They are very hospitable. They are very interested in your opinion. This world view is great for poker. You need to care about the other person. What drives him or her? Where is their comfort zone? Then you need to act on that understanding. Faking it won't work. You need to really care.

I also think, they are less materialistic than Americans. Because they care less about money, they value it less and they don't care as much if they lose. This leads to a lack of fear and more aggressive stance at the table. Controlled and measured aggression leads to success. The best players are not afraid to lose. They know its inevitable and they accept it and use it to their advantage.

Ah Europe. When's the next plane?

Forest or Trees?

Poker as a microcosm of a philosophy of living continues.

I recently returned from a 5 day camping trip with my daughter to the Adirondacks. This is an actual picture from the lake we stayed on. This an annual trip and I've been doing it for 17 years. Just as yoga centers me on a weekly basis, this trip is a yearly cleansing experience. We leave our watches, cell phones and wallets behind. Our days are filled by reading, meal preparation, swimming, talking and, most importantly, thinking. The numberless, civilization void clears the brain paths for clear contemplation. Big picture thinking dominates. I look back at the previous year, the previous five years as well as set future goals.

This year, I find myself in a transition. I've sold my Internet Learning Company in December and I found myself going through a series of emotions. At first, I felt a dire need to start up my next venture right away. I almost frantically researched the marketplace for a significant gap that I could fill. I came up with quite a few ideas. Poker courses. A linking program to increase web site visibility. Commercial Real Estate. Writing my second novel. Financial Investing work for my fellow poker players. Applications for apps that can be controlled by the users brain waves. Only the "linking" idea I deemed a non-starter. All the others had merit and I struggled to select the one project to focus on. (I'm not a very good multiplexer.) Then I started to feel guilty whenever I was working on one idea because I was neglecting the others. My stress level gradually increased. My blood pressure rose. I was making myself ill.

But out there on Indian Lake, I could decompress and see the forest. I saw my life as a poker tournament. I was well into it. I had amassed some chips. Not enough to see me through to the end, but enough to sit back a little. Increase the percentage of hands I played in an ABC style. Don't need to jump into risky situations. I realized I needed to let the tournament come to me. Let it unfold a bit. Make mental notes on what was happening and, most importantly, give opportunities a chance to present themselves. Don't force the action. I have time now to enjoy time with my wife and my four kids. I can play poker to make ends meet. Feel everyday.

So I've changed course a bit. I'm monitoring all the project ideas I initiated, but I'm not stressing over them. When an idea materializes that is interesting, potentially lucrative and pings a passion within, I'll know it. I feel better already.

GasLand - Must See TV

Like all Americans, I care about this country. I believe in freedom for the individual such as online poker which I have discussed in previous entries. But almost everything pales in comparison to the health of our environment. If something is hurting our air or water, we need to stop it. But I was also trained as a scientist and real proof must be presented for all cases.

Josh Fox received a letter from a gas company offering him $100,000 to let them use his land in PA to drill for natural gas. He decided to look into the matter in detail and produced an HBO documentary - GasLand. The movie just came out on June 22. Its a chilling story. I urge everyone to see it. If you get HBO, its available on demand.

To put it tactfully, Josh is not happy with the gas and oil industry. He claims that the "fracking" process is poisoning wells all over the country. The industry says he is overstating the case. Since the story is so scary, I decided to do some homework on my own. Here is my take.

Josh did us a great service in bringing this story to light. It something that needs to be discussed openly. We also need much more data. Too many questions are not addressed. Such as, how many homeowners have filed complaints about their wells? Where are they located? What studies have been done to date? Who authored them and what do they show? If there haven't been any recent studies, then we need to get some good scientist on it right away. I'm also dissappointed with Josh's map of the waterways. It is drawn so far off scale and hurts his credibility. It looks like New York State is 75% water, for example. He also fails to show proper balance relative to the stories he tells. Some of these incidents were supposedly debunked. Give us everything, Josh, not just the pieces that help your argument.

Now on the industry side. The biggest problem I have with their counter argument is that they never fully explain why they are so fearful of having the EPA oversee their activities. Isn't that why we have an EPA? They claim the states are doing a good job of oversight. They also cling to a 2004 EPA report that purports to prove that the process is safe. First of all, I have trouble believing the Bush EPA was an impartial entity. The former CEO of Haliburton was the VP for crying out loud. Secondly the EPA did not do any independent research on the issue. It simply performed a mega-study and based its findings on other studies several of which were performed by the industry (which to me have no value due to sever conflict of interest).

I must say however, being the experienced poker player, I spied two tells on the industry website. The first one was that they claim that methane mixing with water does not pose a health risk because methane is a gas and it doesn't get in to the water. C'mon fellas. Who in their right mind would tolerate methane gas coming out of the tap when you turned on the water. The other tell was that they said they would take full responsibility for any damage to water wells that they caused. But they wouldn't take responsibility for a poisoned well if the fracture already existed and they just kind of inched it along. You kiddin' me.

Bottom line. To President Obama: Clearly this oversight must fall under the EPA. The industry defended the status quo by saying it would cost jobs. Not good enough. If this is as harmful as Mr. Fox makes it out to be, it needs to be addressed. Secondly, a panel of top scientists including a few from industry and from the environmental community (as long as they have stellar credentials) needs to be empaneled on a Presidential Commission. Finally, a moratorium on new drilling should be put in place until all this can be sorted out. I don't think anyone would disagree with the statement: Drilling for natural gas is fine as long as we can be absolutely sure that it is environmentally benign.

Next time I'll get back to poker.

A Good Run

In the end, the best you can do is have "a good run." We hear it all the time. Most recently in regards to Tom Watson. The guy is 60 years old and is still competitive on the PGA Tour. Witness the British Open last year and again in the US Open this year where he was tied for 16th after 3 days. He has had success at the sport for 45 years. Now that's a good run.

Another example is my father, Dr. Welton M. Gersony. The man has excelled at his calling, Pediatric Cardiology for 50 years. He still loves his occupation dearly and more than anything, at 78, wants to continued to be consider a leader in the field.

And in poker, no one has had a better run than Doyle Brunson. He has been playing poker for 65 years. Still loves it. Is still great at it. A lucky man.

Ruminating on the concept of "a good run," it seems that, especially when we are young, we think we can get more out of life than is possible. In the end, the very best we can hope for is "a good run." A period of time on earth where there is a beginning, a middle and an end in which things generally go quite well. Nothing goes perfect all the time during our run. Watson and my father both went through difficult divorces. Doyle survived the death of a daughter. They dealt with their difficulties and though I can't get into their heads, they, as well as many others, focused on the positive and got the most out of their passions.

Sure, we can all fantasize about having it all, money, great relationships, skill, recognition and fame. But rarely do we see these things for what they really are. They are fleeting. If they give us pleasure, satisfaction and happiness for some period of time, than we are blessed. Things that are not worthwhile need to be shed. For it is not only the thing, it is the thing in relation to time. If there is something you are dreaming of doing or acquiring, you need to do it when the window in time opens for such a thing to be done. If you don't, the window may be closed forever.

Poker, again, has proved to be an excellent microcosm of "a good run" concept. We even use the exact same phrase to describe it. We also call it "running hot" and "being on a heater." Every poker player can remember a good run. Sometimes it lasts for a few days, maybe a few weeks and occasionally for months on end. But one thing is always certain. It ends. But in poker we have multiple lifetimes. We may have many good runs (and bad ones - to be discussed some other time). Maybe that's why successful players rarely quit playing the game. There is a sense of immortality about the game even though we know, like everything else, it ends. Every session starts with a birth. Every hand is a new beginning.

Although most people think it is depressing to think of our lives as a finite time parcel, I think it allows us to live happier. We are aware of the transient nature of our existence so we try harder to squeeze every drop of satisfaction we can out of it. We don't let small things get us down, we learn to let a bad experience disappear into the past. We look at every minute as a gift and we learn that to achieve greater happiness, we must give happiness to others. For satisfaction does not only come from material acquisitions and a pampered life style. For some (myself included) these goals are only a small part of what gives inner peace. Achievement, help and honest actions are much higher on the list. In the end, it is not about us as individuals as much as it is about us as a whole.

Now go out their today, focus on your passions and enjoy your run.

Poker Etiquette

Etiquette? What does that have to do with the rough and tumble world of high stakes poker? I often feel this is what many of the young players think. To many of them, its something ladies worry about at tea parties - nothing to do with them.

As it turns out, poker etiquette is an absolutely critical aspect of the game - especially for anyone who expects to play fairly regularly. Etiquette is where you show the quality of your character. It indicates the degree to which you are to be trusted. It shows to the world whether you are a straight shooter with a good ethical backbone or if you are a conniver, a cheat, a selfish imp who has no respect for others. So if you play regularly, you will be playing with the same players over and over again. Furthermore, those players will interact and trade stories about your exploits at the table. It's amazing how fast a good or bad impression of a player will circulate through the table in cities all over the country, if not the world.

Obviously, if that impression is negative, that profile of you will stay with you for a long time to come. Here are a few examples; Jamie Gold refusing to chop after he made a deal; Rich Gordon's "back up the truck" comment on Poker After Dark; The discovery of tournament poker chips in a well-known players hotel room. (Rather not mention the name in case you are unfamiliar with the case.) Each of these players are going to spend years and years to live down these breaches of etiquette. Some will recover more easily than others, but once you cross the line, it is brutal trying to win back a reputation as a clean, trustworthy player. I always tell young players to err on the side of generosity. If you misread your cards and your opponent mucks the winning hand. Offer to give him the pot anyway (or some portion). If you catch a glimpse of an opponents hole cards, let them know that that need to protect their cards better. etc.

You want people to trust you no questions asked. If you offer a deal in a tournament or its a backing arrangement, you don't want to have to prove your good character over and over again. Keep being consistently honest and aware of all nuances to the etiquette game. Treat everyone with respect. Be careful how you talk about others. Its not hard and it may even seem silly at times, but in the end it is absolutely critical for aspiring professional players.

If you make a brazen breach there may be card rooms where you could never show your face again. If you make an honest mistake, go above and beyond the rules to make things right. In the long run, you'll be glad you did.