Freedom

Yes, it is true, I haven't posted in a while. The truth of the matter is that I have had nothing to say. I often wish the media would take that tact sometimes instead of filling the airwaves with crap.

Now I do have something to say, It has to do with our nationally cherished word - freedom. A word that seems simple enough to understand. The ability to do what we want seems to me to be as good a definition as any. As Americans (which is really a false way to refer to citizens of the United States. Aren't Venezuelans Americans as well?), we think that our country is the freest in the world - the freest that ever existed on earth. We have the right to think whatever we want. We have the right to do whatever we want (within the law). etc. It is a glorious concept and country we live in. Unfortunately, slowly and unceasingly our freedom has been eroded over time without us really noticing it. Freedom is disappearing in the United States of America.

Let me explain. As a young person, you are encouraged to select a profession that best suits your interests, needs and talents. But as a young person, you have very little information as to make the best selection. So lets say you select "exterminator." You learn how to exterminate by getting training which you get by borrowing money. Nobody is going to train you for free. You get a job. You climb the slow pay ladder to a reasonably comfortable position. You fall in love and get married. Have kids. Buy a house. Open a retirement account. Now you are saddled with a mortgage, debt to pay for the things all Americans must have - cars, furniture, vacations. Don't forget taxes. The biggest kicker of all is Health Care Insurance. Huge premiums are required to be paid every month. Pay up buddy, or die when you get sick. Now its all over. If it turns out that you hate being an exterminator - too bad for you. You can't go back a pay to train for another career. The debt and other fiscal responsibilities will crush you. Where is your freedom now, Mr. America? You can't pick up and go on that two month cross-country trip you always dreamed of - got to pay the mortgage. No time to write that novel - got to save to send the kiddies to college. No time for nothing. Just work. slave, work.

I know, in the past, I've cautioned anyone who has shown any interest in becoming a professional poker player. I'm changing my tune. Poker is one of the few professions that, if you become proficient, allows you to keep your freedom. You can play when and where you want to. If you have good year or month, you can easily take a year off and do something else. The biggest hurdle to even this last bastion of freedom is this insidious Health Care Insurance we all must pay for. I call it - the great enslaver. Its as much as a mortgage for most households. I would argue that other countries that don't have it are freer countries. Give me the Swedish system, the English system, hell I'll take the French system over ours any day. The people there are freer, they live longer (check that statistics), are healthier and are surely more happy than us.

Don't let the politicians pull the wool over your eyes. A single payer system for health care is the only way to go if you, like me, value real freedom.

Embracing Probabilities

I think the hardest thing for the non-experienced player to understand about poker is the concept that you can lose when you make the right play. So many people have come up to me and said (in essence) "Poker has to be all luck because I was watching a final table on TV and this guy was always ahead when the money went in and he end up in last place." And certainly that is true, often times the player who plays the best is not rewarded. Its seems to go against the meritocracy concept the US is said to embrace.

The thing is poker is all about the concept of probabilities. And probabilities is a concept that seems clear on the surface. If you flip a coin there is a 50% chance that it'll be tails. But the more you burrow into the deep underpinnings of future predicting, it become problematic to many people. Such as the fact that if you flip a coin 20 times in a row and it turns up heads every time, what are the chances that it will be heads on the 21st time? Same as before: 50%. So #1, probabilities are independent events. But at the same time, if you flip that coin 10,000 times, by the laws of math, it'll be heads 5,000 times almost exactly. Wow.

I had a recent run in with the probability monster, actually three run ins. Last week, I get all my money in with pocket kings (about $700). I'm up against Ace-King. I lose to a straight. Three days later I get all my money in (about $1500) with pocket aces against King-King. I lose to a set of kings. Just the day before yesterday I get all my money in with King-King (about $900) versus Ace-Queen and Jack-Jack. I lose when an Ace hits the board. I'm not saying these occurrences aren't painful. They are (for a little while anyway). Poker is a streaky game as is the case for anything involving probabilities.

But the way to consider it is, I think, in terms of a master, lifetime list. When these situations come up, your going to win most of the time, but you are going to lose as well. In the case of the last scenario, you'll win 2 out of every three times AND when you win you'll be getting 2:1 on your money. No real gambler would ever pass that up. But you WILL lose one out of every three times as well. So when you lose, you need to put it into the loss list and forget about it. Its inevitable that it will happen. But probabilities are an immutable law of nature. In the end, you'll be a winning player.

Trust me.

By Feel or by the Book

One of the most difficult aspects of poker is the concept of "feel." World class players, I believe, are born with a natural feel for the game. They understand probabilities intuitively. They find it easy to completely transfer themselves into the head of their opponents. And, maybe most importantly, they have no fear.

There are thousands of very competent players out there. They've learned to compute probabilities quickly and accurately. They have a good poker demeanor (poker face). Pricing opponents out, making big lay downs and value betting are not a problem. But what they don't understand is that those are the easiest parts of playing poker. The real tricky parts are; making the tough call, re-raise bluffing, trusting your read and sticking with a false story and completely immersing yourself into the other person's head. Anyone can win with an ace high flush. Win with a pair of fours and I'll be impressed.

I think one of the reasons that a proportionately higher number of top players come out of Europe rather than the US is that in this country we are so self oriented. We rarely take the time to see the world from another's perspective. Its all about me. Do I have the best car? Should I be making more money? How can I get this guy to do the deal that benefits me the best.

In Europe, people are more concerned about making other people feel comfortable. They are very hospitable. They are very interested in your opinion. This world view is great for poker. You need to care about the other person. What drives him or her? Where is their comfort zone? Then you need to act on that understanding. Faking it won't work. You need to really care.

I also think, they are less materialistic than Americans. Because they care less about money, they value it less and they don't care as much if they lose. This leads to a lack of fear and more aggressive stance at the table. Controlled and measured aggression leads to success. The best players are not afraid to lose. They know its inevitable and they accept it and use it to their advantage.

Ah Europe. When's the next plane?

Forest or Trees?

Poker as a microcosm of a philosophy of living continues.

I recently returned from a 5 day camping trip with my daughter to the Adirondacks. This is an actual picture from the lake we stayed on. This an annual trip and I've been doing it for 17 years. Just as yoga centers me on a weekly basis, this trip is a yearly cleansing experience. We leave our watches, cell phones and wallets behind. Our days are filled by reading, meal preparation, swimming, talking and, most importantly, thinking. The numberless, civilization void clears the brain paths for clear contemplation. Big picture thinking dominates. I look back at the previous year, the previous five years as well as set future goals.

This year, I find myself in a transition. I've sold my Internet Learning Company in December and I found myself going through a series of emotions. At first, I felt a dire need to start up my next venture right away. I almost frantically researched the marketplace for a significant gap that I could fill. I came up with quite a few ideas. Poker courses. A linking program to increase web site visibility. Commercial Real Estate. Writing my second novel. Financial Investing work for my fellow poker players. Applications for apps that can be controlled by the users brain waves. Only the "linking" idea I deemed a non-starter. All the others had merit and I struggled to select the one project to focus on. (I'm not a very good multiplexer.) Then I started to feel guilty whenever I was working on one idea because I was neglecting the others. My stress level gradually increased. My blood pressure rose. I was making myself ill.

But out there on Indian Lake, I could decompress and see the forest. I saw my life as a poker tournament. I was well into it. I had amassed some chips. Not enough to see me through to the end, but enough to sit back a little. Increase the percentage of hands I played in an ABC style. Don't need to jump into risky situations. I realized I needed to let the tournament come to me. Let it unfold a bit. Make mental notes on what was happening and, most importantly, give opportunities a chance to present themselves. Don't force the action. I have time now to enjoy time with my wife and my four kids. I can play poker to make ends meet. Feel everyday.

So I've changed course a bit. I'm monitoring all the project ideas I initiated, but I'm not stressing over them. When an idea materializes that is interesting, potentially lucrative and pings a passion within, I'll know it. I feel better already.

GasLand - Must See TV

Like all Americans, I care about this country. I believe in freedom for the individual such as online poker which I have discussed in previous entries. But almost everything pales in comparison to the health of our environment. If something is hurting our air or water, we need to stop it. But I was also trained as a scientist and real proof must be presented for all cases.

Josh Fox received a letter from a gas company offering him $100,000 to let them use his land in PA to drill for natural gas. He decided to look into the matter in detail and produced an HBO documentary - GasLand. The movie just came out on June 22. Its a chilling story. I urge everyone to see it. If you get HBO, its available on demand.

To put it tactfully, Josh is not happy with the gas and oil industry. He claims that the "fracking" process is poisoning wells all over the country. The industry says he is overstating the case. Since the story is so scary, I decided to do some homework on my own. Here is my take.

Josh did us a great service in bringing this story to light. It something that needs to be discussed openly. We also need much more data. Too many questions are not addressed. Such as, how many homeowners have filed complaints about their wells? Where are they located? What studies have been done to date? Who authored them and what do they show? If there haven't been any recent studies, then we need to get some good scientist on it right away. I'm also dissappointed with Josh's map of the waterways. It is drawn so far off scale and hurts his credibility. It looks like New York State is 75% water, for example. He also fails to show proper balance relative to the stories he tells. Some of these incidents were supposedly debunked. Give us everything, Josh, not just the pieces that help your argument.

Now on the industry side. The biggest problem I have with their counter argument is that they never fully explain why they are so fearful of having the EPA oversee their activities. Isn't that why we have an EPA? They claim the states are doing a good job of oversight. They also cling to a 2004 EPA report that purports to prove that the process is safe. First of all, I have trouble believing the Bush EPA was an impartial entity. The former CEO of Haliburton was the VP for crying out loud. Secondly the EPA did not do any independent research on the issue. It simply performed a mega-study and based its findings on other studies several of which were performed by the industry (which to me have no value due to sever conflict of interest).

I must say however, being the experienced poker player, I spied two tells on the industry website. The first one was that they claim that methane mixing with water does not pose a health risk because methane is a gas and it doesn't get in to the water. C'mon fellas. Who in their right mind would tolerate methane gas coming out of the tap when you turned on the water. The other tell was that they said they would take full responsibility for any damage to water wells that they caused. But they wouldn't take responsibility for a poisoned well if the fracture already existed and they just kind of inched it along. You kiddin' me.

Bottom line. To President Obama: Clearly this oversight must fall under the EPA. The industry defended the status quo by saying it would cost jobs. Not good enough. If this is as harmful as Mr. Fox makes it out to be, it needs to be addressed. Secondly, a panel of top scientists including a few from industry and from the environmental community (as long as they have stellar credentials) needs to be empaneled on a Presidential Commission. Finally, a moratorium on new drilling should be put in place until all this can be sorted out. I don't think anyone would disagree with the statement: Drilling for natural gas is fine as long as we can be absolutely sure that it is environmentally benign.

Next time I'll get back to poker.

A Good Run

In the end, the best you can do is have "a good run." We hear it all the time. Most recently in regards to Tom Watson. The guy is 60 years old and is still competitive on the PGA Tour. Witness the British Open last year and again in the US Open this year where he was tied for 16th after 3 days. He has had success at the sport for 45 years. Now that's a good run.

Another example is my father, Dr. Welton M. Gersony. The man has excelled at his calling, Pediatric Cardiology for 50 years. He still loves his occupation dearly and more than anything, at 78, wants to continued to be consider a leader in the field.

And in poker, no one has had a better run than Doyle Brunson. He has been playing poker for 65 years. Still loves it. Is still great at it. A lucky man.

Ruminating on the concept of "a good run," it seems that, especially when we are young, we think we can get more out of life than is possible. In the end, the very best we can hope for is "a good run." A period of time on earth where there is a beginning, a middle and an end in which things generally go quite well. Nothing goes perfect all the time during our run. Watson and my father both went through difficult divorces. Doyle survived the death of a daughter. They dealt with their difficulties and though I can't get into their heads, they, as well as many others, focused on the positive and got the most out of their passions.

Sure, we can all fantasize about having it all, money, great relationships, skill, recognition and fame. But rarely do we see these things for what they really are. They are fleeting. If they give us pleasure, satisfaction and happiness for some period of time, than we are blessed. Things that are not worthwhile need to be shed. For it is not only the thing, it is the thing in relation to time. If there is something you are dreaming of doing or acquiring, you need to do it when the window in time opens for such a thing to be done. If you don't, the window may be closed forever.

Poker, again, has proved to be an excellent microcosm of "a good run" concept. We even use the exact same phrase to describe it. We also call it "running hot" and "being on a heater." Every poker player can remember a good run. Sometimes it lasts for a few days, maybe a few weeks and occasionally for months on end. But one thing is always certain. It ends. But in poker we have multiple lifetimes. We may have many good runs (and bad ones - to be discussed some other time). Maybe that's why successful players rarely quit playing the game. There is a sense of immortality about the game even though we know, like everything else, it ends. Every session starts with a birth. Every hand is a new beginning.

Although most people think it is depressing to think of our lives as a finite time parcel, I think it allows us to live happier. We are aware of the transient nature of our existence so we try harder to squeeze every drop of satisfaction we can out of it. We don't let small things get us down, we learn to let a bad experience disappear into the past. We look at every minute as a gift and we learn that to achieve greater happiness, we must give happiness to others. For satisfaction does not only come from material acquisitions and a pampered life style. For some (myself included) these goals are only a small part of what gives inner peace. Achievement, help and honest actions are much higher on the list. In the end, it is not about us as individuals as much as it is about us as a whole.

Now go out their today, focus on your passions and enjoy your run.

Poker Etiquette

Etiquette? What does that have to do with the rough and tumble world of high stakes poker? I often feel this is what many of the young players think. To many of them, its something ladies worry about at tea parties - nothing to do with them.

As it turns out, poker etiquette is an absolutely critical aspect of the game - especially for anyone who expects to play fairly regularly. Etiquette is where you show the quality of your character. It indicates the degree to which you are to be trusted. It shows to the world whether you are a straight shooter with a good ethical backbone or if you are a conniver, a cheat, a selfish imp who has no respect for others. So if you play regularly, you will be playing with the same players over and over again. Furthermore, those players will interact and trade stories about your exploits at the table. It's amazing how fast a good or bad impression of a player will circulate through the table in cities all over the country, if not the world.

Obviously, if that impression is negative, that profile of you will stay with you for a long time to come. Here are a few examples; Jamie Gold refusing to chop after he made a deal; Rich Gordon's "back up the truck" comment on Poker After Dark; The discovery of tournament poker chips in a well-known players hotel room. (Rather not mention the name in case you are unfamiliar with the case.) Each of these players are going to spend years and years to live down these breaches of etiquette. Some will recover more easily than others, but once you cross the line, it is brutal trying to win back a reputation as a clean, trustworthy player. I always tell young players to err on the side of generosity. If you misread your cards and your opponent mucks the winning hand. Offer to give him the pot anyway (or some portion). If you catch a glimpse of an opponents hole cards, let them know that that need to protect their cards better. etc.

You want people to trust you no questions asked. If you offer a deal in a tournament or its a backing arrangement, you don't want to have to prove your good character over and over again. Keep being consistently honest and aware of all nuances to the etiquette game. Treat everyone with respect. Be careful how you talk about others. Its not hard and it may even seem silly at times, but in the end it is absolutely critical for aspiring professional players.

If you make a brazen breach there may be card rooms where you could never show your face again. If you make an honest mistake, go above and beyond the rules to make things right. In the long run, you'll be glad you did.

Position, position . . . Position?

We always how important position at the poker table is. As we all have heard a million times. Its best to act last - that's why we call it "having position."

For many years, I've understood why this is so, but as a player, I've haven't put a priority of having position as many others pros have. Something inside of me was saying; "Position isn't all its cracked up to be." But I could never really put my finger on why I subscribe to this notion.

The other enduring rule for the good poker player is to find a seat at the cash table in which the loose crazies are on your right and the ABC rocks are on your left. The theory is that you want all the raising to be ahead of you so your not so easily trapped into a big, expensive hand with marginal cards. And yes, you guessed it, I'm going to challenge this convention as well.

The cards have started to cooperate with me as of late after a horrendous down streak, probably one of the worst of my poker career. Part of my success was to position myself not to the left of a wacko player who continuously overplayed his hand, but to sit to his immediate right.

My strategy was quite straightforward. At the table were mostly experienced players, most of whom I had played with many times and all were very aware of the lunatic sitting to my right. Who couldn't notice that he was entering almost every pot and raising or re-raising 50% of the time. We all knew he was not valuing his hands properly. No one gets playable hands near 100% of the time and no one gets premium starting hands 50% of the time. The 5/10 no limit game we were playing was essentially a 25/50 game. We all knew that we were going to be putting in at least $50 into the pot pre-flop if we were to play any hand.

It was fairly early on that I realized that my position against this guy wasn't the worst position, but the best position to be in. Every time he raised, players would roll their eyes as they were forced to put in $50, $60 or up to $100 on a hand such as J10 suited, when in a "normal" game they'd rarely put in more than $40. What a set up this was for me. When a big hand came my way such as QQ, I'd limp. Mr. Mental Institution would immediately make it $75 or some such thing. Good players would reluctantly call. Often three or four. I'd then make it $500 or more. My position allowed the pot to be built up substantially so I was making a $300 or so win risk free. Occasionally, the lunatic would call me. Now I could push again on the flop and he'd fold. So my position still benefited me. It was a wonderful thing. I made a killing that night.

There were other tricks I was gathering well. For a full review of my revolutionary new strategy - the new position in position poker - go to my poker courses and have a looksy. Go get 'em.

Poker - The Evil Twin Paradox

One of the key tenets of understanding how to play winning poker is to understand the concept that I call "the evil twin."

In the course of a cash session, you will be presented with a number of decisions. And you will be creating decision situations for your opponents. To the untrained eye it seems impossible to know what to do. For example, lets say you raised pre-flop with a pocket pair of sevens. Its folded around to the big blind who immediately calls. The flop comes out:

Queen; Five; Deuce

The big blind comes out betting. Its your turn to act. What do you do?

These situations come up over and over again. Your opponent either has you or the evil twin is that he doesn't. In a nut shell, this is what good poker is all about - dealing with the situation of the evil twin. The player who makes the right move in these situations more often, will be a winning player over the long run.

So how do you make the right play? The short answer is that its much more complicated than it appears. I've created a course on the "Evil Twin" concept at PokerSlamU.com. But in a nut shell, you are in a duel. The more unclear you make it for your opponent - the better. Most people will just fold if they are unsure. The more data you can pick up on your opponent - the better.

When it comes to your image, the most common and best strategy is you want to be perceived as a relatively tight player. You, most of the time, want your opponent to fold. Believe me, those pots add up fast. If you're having a card dead day, you can still have a profitable day if you can successfully create a tight player image, raise no more than once every two rotations or so. Consistently bet your cards. That is the best I can tell you in a paragraph.

When it comes to choosing a twin when you are put to the test, take as much into account as possible. Most players who are betting out do not have it. Most players do not like to be raised and are intimidated. Understand what each player is capable of doing. Most recreational players, for example, are incapable of making a big bluff re-raise against a tight player. These are only a few of the critical pieces to the puzzle that you are putting together.

Feel becomes critical. I'm most comfortable in a 5/10 no limit game. Whenever I dip down to 1/2 or 2/5, I don't do as well. I find the players are more willing to call. There is less at stake. Smaller stacks. Less at stake. So if I'm card dead, I have a hard time manufacturing wins.

Find your comfort zone. What game best fits you. The better you get, the more successful you'll be at the higher limits.

Leaving it All Behind

I don't know about you, but sometimes I get this strong urge to move on out. I'm not sure if its because I moved a lot when I was a kid and its in my blood, or its my need for adventure or maybe I just need a change.

Don't get me wrong, I sincerely believe that each and everyone of us who have the privilege of living in the 'ol US of A are blessed. I think its more about the way we live that causes me angst. I'm tired of the treadmill. Make money to pay the bills. Be sure to have health insurance. Each day that passes I feel regret for the things I could be doing. For doing things that I personally value. Things that are simple but are hard to do because of the need meet the requirements of our ever increasing responsibilities.

What am I talking about exactly? I'm not exactly sure but I think it revolves around an urge to chuck all the "stuff" and experience life freely on a more basic level. And by golly, I'm going to do something about it.

The wonder of the Internet (as I discussed in my past post) does allow freedom. My poker course web site is run by a webmaster in Colorado, whom I never met. I use a graphics designer from Long Island and the site itself resides on a server in I don't know where - Internet land, I guess.

My current plan is this: I'm going to continue to upgrade and develop my poker courses, give away all my key poker knowledge which has generated hundreds of thousands of dollars for me over the course of my poker career (about 9 years). I'm going to develop a few more web sites with my partners and build them into premiere sites. Then, in October of 2012, I'm hitting the road with my wife and my #3 daughter and my son. (Maybe my #1 and #2 daughters will join us for a while.) I'm going to design and build a specialty van, buy a pop up trailer and sell my house. Then for the next year or two or three or longer, we are going to hit the road. Really get to know this country and all its natural beauty. Believe it or not, my wife loves the idea (what a wife!). I can continue my poker career (mostly online) and continue to work with my partners on the web sites - have cellular broadband will travel.

Has anyone else thought about doing this? It'll be a journey within a journey. An experiment in living. An adventure like none other. Hope I can pull it off. I'll keep you posted by documenting the trip right here. Stay tuned.

The Birth of a Company

After I sold my company, CEU.com, in December 2009, I thought I'd take some time to think. Think about life, family, friends, goals and, of course, my next business venture. I thought it'd take a while, but lo and behold, in a matter of months, I have not one but three ideas for my next Internet business. I'll only consider Internet businesses because its what I know, it doesn't require oodles of cash to get started, it comes with a free distribution and communication system, no inventory . . .

You may think that its all been done. But after taking some time to think, nothing could be further form the truth. Why? Because the Internet is constantly changing. New tools become ubiquitous (e.g. smart phones). New capacities are added (e.g.wireless broadband). People are using the web for new things. There are always new combinations waiting to be discovered. My biggest issue is editing my choices. I'll continue to offer advanced poker courses through PokerSlamU.com. That goes without saying. But I've been approached by experts in several fields and some investors, now it becomes an issue of matching and making decisions on where to focus my time and money.

But I can see why the entrepreneurial road isn't for everybody. There is no job security. You need to go with your ideas and live or die by your own hand. I have certainly found myself in many panicky situations. But when I come face-to-face with trouble or a hurdle, I've learned that they always seem insurmountable at first. Over time you find a series of solution options. You pick one. If that doesn't work, you pick another. One of the best pieces of advice I've ever gotten about this was from Bob Stupak, the founder of the Stratosphere Hotel in Las Vegas. "The most important thing for an entrepreneur is perseverence. Almost any company can be a success if you keep making appropriate changes and don't ever give up."

All In

What really makes hold em the poker game of the times is the All In move. Nothing is more exciting then when an athlete gives it everything they got or when a professional pushes the limit in their field. "Here it is," they say, "I'm ALL IN."

Poker brings the move to a high state of visualization. You only have so much ammunition. You've been ever so careful in building it up over the course of a tournament. But now you've put it all at risk by shoving every single chip you have at into the center of the table. It's double or nothing. It's do or die. I love it.

But the All In move is all about timing. Not just doing it when you have the nuts - the best possible hand in poker. That move is relatively easy. You can't lose, so why not. In fact that is NOT the best time, usually, to make the big move because most of the time, your opponent is going to fold and there is no value to be gained. I was just in a tournament where I saw the worst All In move in history. Its the table chip leader against the second in chips. Thge chip leader bets 5X the big blind pre-flop. The second chip leader calls. The flop comes out 10-10-4. The chip leader bets out 10X the big blind. The second chip leader goes all in and the leader folds. The second chip leader proudly shows the table pocket 10s. Ouch. A huge opportunity lost. He had position. He had an unbeatable hand. He could have easily doubled up. Horrible - just horrible play.

The All In move is about (1) getting called when you have the best hand; (2) protecting a lead in a hand; (3) forcing your opponent to call on the river because they feel they are priced in; and, most importantly (4) re-building your stack when you are short. Of course all these situations are shown in detail on my poker courses. Its all about feel. Its about creating a tight image, then making the move and forcing strong hands to fold. Or creating a loose image and getting medium strength hands to call. Its about deception. Making the move when you look desperate. Making the move on a player that is tilting. Doing it when you sense weakness. In poker the important thing is often not what you hold, but what is in your opponent's hand. So many opportunities that players let get away. Too many to go into all of them here.

Its a move that is to be used very sparingly early and early mid of a tournament. Why? Because the gain is small compared to the risk - getting eliminated.

I love that the "All In" phrase has popped up in general language. I see it in the newspapers. "Obama goes All In on Health Care." I see it professionally. My father, who is respected Pediatric Cardiologist, told his boss, "Either we fix our budget or I QUIT." He was certainly all in.

Good Luck with your all in bets. Make sure you're prepared. Your opponents are primed and, most importantly, make sure the risk/reward equation is in your favor.

The Art of the Bluff

Poker Skills are the same as business skills. Yeah. Yeah. Heard it a million times. Lets get to the specifics. Show me, don't tell me - the mantra of every good writer.

There is no better example than in the art of the bluff. Does he or doesn't he? Will she or won't she? Does he have it?

Many people see the bluff in isolation or out of context and think, "wow, that's neat. Bet a lot and your opponent folds." But in actuality, the professional bluff does not happen all of a sudden. It is a carefully built strategy that results in bluffs taking strategic pots. no one can win at poker by bluffing willy nilly. Its an extremely high risk move that costs you much more when you lose than it gains you when you win.

Now lets think about it in terms of business. A failed bluff can be very costly. "I'll quit if I don't get that raise." "That's my last and final offer." A professional at business uses this tool in very specific situations. First, he must size up his opponent. Is she a risk taker? Does he exaggerate? Does she lie?

Secondly, he needs to understand the importance of the deal to himself or his company. A systematic Cost/Benefit Analysis is needed. If its critical, tread carefully. If there are other options, can be more aggressive.

Thirdly, is the bluff bordering on unethical behavior. In the end, your opponent will often learn the true state of things. If you cross the line you jeopardize future deals with that and other agents. A much underrated concern is that if you go to far, you'll have to live with your unethical act for a long time if not, if its flagrant enough, for the rest of your life.

In poker, the same issues are involved. A reckless bluffer will get called more often and see a net loss on his annual ledger. An unethical bluffer (certain comments, motions etc.), will label the player and the person (the game often extends beyond the boundaries of the felt) as untrustworthy. Bluffing the wrong type of player or in the wrong situations are huge net losers in the long term.

A bluff is the culmination of a story. You build your reputation at the table. Playing selective hands takes the frequency tell out of the equation. Never show your cards to build this image. Uncertainty is the pro's best friend. Then you look for the ideal situation:

• Semi-bluff whenever possible
  
• Attack the ABC player
• Look for bona fide weakness
• Pay attention to patterns in their game
• Bet enough (too much is much better than too little)
• Look for positional advantage

There is much much much more to consider and talk about in bluffing strategy. On my site, I give many examples and rate the quality of the bluffing situation. Soon it will become second nature. You'll know that there are situations that your opponent will know he most likely has the best hand, but he absolutely cannot call. The risk is to large. This knowledge and ability is probably the single most important skill that separates the pro from the amatuer.

In the end (without counting continuation bets), you should be bluffing no more than three or four times a session. And four times is too much. But be aware. Once they start to see what you are doing modify. On top of that, your personality, ethical backbone and understanding of the type of players you are up against skews the strategy accordingly. What a great frickin' game!

Luck?!?!!????

Very interesting things I've been hearing about the concept of luck. This post falls under the category of poker imitating life or is it the other way around?

Bill Gates was asked; "To what extent was it just pure luck that Microsoft became as big as powerful as it did?" His response was that luck played a big part. It was luck that he developed computer skills as a youth instead of some other skill such as tiddlywinks. It was luck that he hooked up with the perfect partner. It was luck that he got into the marketplace just as the personal computer was taking off.

Sergei Brin was asked to what extent was luck the reason Google got as big as it has gotten. He answered that it was lucky that he found the perfect partner. It was lucky that he got into the market at the right time. etc.

All the time we hear that luck is so important in poker. Sure its important. Its important in every human endeavor. There is no getting around the fact that much of human course depends on factors that are not in that humans control. i.e. luck comes into play. Now is it 100% luck that Gates and Brin were successful? No, of course not. They were good at the skills they needed and were hard working and creative. But those factors alone do not guarantee success by any stretch. You gotta have a little luck. The more the better.

Then it comes to how you define luck. Is it luck (bad) that I lose all my chips to a loose player when I have the second nut flush when he's got the nut flush. Well kinda. But I was never ahead and many would argue that I was outplayed to certain extent. But luck was a certainly a factor.

More often we think of luck when we are ahead in the hand. Top set against a straight draw kinda thing. But this is the weakness of the unpatient, inexperienced player. Luck happens. My favorite player handling luck is Chris "Jesus" Ferguson. I've seen him lose with a full ouse on the flop to a runner runner higher full house (1:90 Leader). He simply stood up, shook his opponents hand with a smile and walked off. Which is all you can do and all you should do. Your job as a poker player is to get your money in good. i.e. when the odds are in your favor. Then let the probabilities do their thing. You'll win in direct proportion to these odds, which means, more often you will win.

So come on already. Stop sweating the bad beats. They'll happen. And they'll keep those weak players coming back.

Thinking about Time

Do you ever start thinking about a concept and the more you think about it the more mysterious and unknown it becomes? Lately I've been thinking about the concept of time.

I have always noticed (and I'm sure you have noticed it too) how time does not always seem to move at the same pace. When I'm in a good poker game, for instance, time seems to go by quickly. When I'm immersed in a writing project, time moves even quicker. When I'm waiting in the Thai restaurant for my take out order, time slows way down. But is that time itself or how we are perceiving time? Maybe time is only a perception.

But time itself is measured in increments that are supposed to be very specific. Did you know that the "second" is

the duration of 9,192,631,770 periods of the radiation corresponding to the transition between the two hyperfine levels of the ground state of the caesium 133 atom.

It used to be 1/86,400 of one rotation of the earth. Don't ask me how they came up with that. Why 1/86,400 and not 1/100,000? I'm sure the original development of the second was the average time for a human heart to beat once or the touch football concept of saying the word "Mississippi." Then they backed that period of time into the time of the earth to rotate. In any case, this wasn't working out anyway because the time it takes the earth to rotate is lengthening. Our days are getting longer. (Another strange concept.)

The real problem with all these approaches is that time in actuality could be moving faster or slower at different intervals. We can use man-made (artificial) devices to measure it, but we have no idea whether we are accurate.

I was playing at the Borgata the other day and I suffered a bad beat and lost my stake. The usual situation when a set on the flop gets blasted by a flush drawn on the river. Now the first sensation is pain. (I never continue playing after this happens, by the way, and I don't recommend it since poker is a very mental game and your mental state is not ideal.) But as time goes on, the pain dissipates. And it dissipates at different rates for different people. This makes me think that time might be individually based. After all, don't older people feel time as moving faster than young people. The theory being that the unit of time is a much smaller percentage of their entire life span lived so far. Won't a mosquito feel (if a mosquito can "feel.") time very slowly since their entire life span is only a few weeks? So time is relative. Right? But that doesn't really work because time is a universal concept. This brings us to Einstein's Theory of Relativity. Time must have a duel nature.

Which led me to believe that time might be controllable in a certain sense by the individual. We can choose to live fast and make time move fast. But that doesn't make sense to me because why would we want to hasten the time to the day we die. Don't we want time to go slow, so we can savor life and all its amenities?

So I've decided that I will control time. I will take things slow, I'll contemplate my surroundings. I'll enjoy those times when time seems to fall away, but I'll try to savor them to the maximum. I don't think we can ever really understand how time moves. It's just one of those mysteries of life that along with many others that keep me thinking.