The Art of the Bluff

Poker Skills are the same as business skills. Yeah. Yeah. Heard it a million times. Lets get to the specifics. Show me, don't tell me - the mantra of every good writer.

There is no better example than in the art of the bluff. Does he or doesn't he? Will she or won't she? Does he have it?

Many people see the bluff in isolation or out of context and think, "wow, that's neat. Bet a lot and your opponent folds." But in actuality, the professional bluff does not happen all of a sudden. It is a carefully built strategy that results in bluffs taking strategic pots. no one can win at poker by bluffing willy nilly. Its an extremely high risk move that costs you much more when you lose than it gains you when you win.

Now lets think about it in terms of business. A failed bluff can be very costly. "I'll quit if I don't get that raise." "That's my last and final offer." A professional at business uses this tool in very specific situations. First, he must size up his opponent. Is she a risk taker? Does he exaggerate? Does she lie?

Secondly, he needs to understand the importance of the deal to himself or his company. A systematic Cost/Benefit Analysis is needed. If its critical, tread carefully. If there are other options, can be more aggressive.

Thirdly, is the bluff bordering on unethical behavior. In the end, your opponent will often learn the true state of things. If you cross the line you jeopardize future deals with that and other agents. A much underrated concern is that if you go to far, you'll have to live with your unethical act for a long time if not, if its flagrant enough, for the rest of your life.

In poker, the same issues are involved. A reckless bluffer will get called more often and see a net loss on his annual ledger. An unethical bluffer (certain comments, motions etc.), will label the player and the person (the game often extends beyond the boundaries of the felt) as untrustworthy. Bluffing the wrong type of player or in the wrong situations are huge net losers in the long term.

A bluff is the culmination of a story. You build your reputation at the table. Playing selective hands takes the frequency tell out of the equation. Never show your cards to build this image. Uncertainty is the pro's best friend. Then you look for the ideal situation:

• Semi-bluff whenever possible
  
• Attack the ABC player
• Look for bona fide weakness
• Pay attention to patterns in their game
• Bet enough (too much is much better than too little)
• Look for positional advantage

There is much much much more to consider and talk about in bluffing strategy. On my site, I give many examples and rate the quality of the bluffing situation. Soon it will become second nature. You'll know that there are situations that your opponent will know he most likely has the best hand, but he absolutely cannot call. The risk is to large. This knowledge and ability is probably the single most important skill that separates the pro from the amatuer.

In the end (without counting continuation bets), you should be bluffing no more than three or four times a session. And four times is too much. But be aware. Once they start to see what you are doing modify. On top of that, your personality, ethical backbone and understanding of the type of players you are up against skews the strategy accordingly. What a great frickin' game!

Poker Think

Often in the poker room, a player will come up to me and ask; "Did I do the right thing?" Then he or she goes on to describe a particular hand, the betting etc. I reassure them that they played it fine (which they usually did). Now that I have these intensive poker courses, I get inquiries from people who ask me something like; if you have AK and a player goes all in ahead of you, do you call? I sent them a response that essentially amounts to; "it depends."

My real feeling about these scenario interactions is that if you ask a question like that; you're not getting it. You're not thinking like a successful poker player. Poker is a game where you not only need to take a myriad of factors into account when you consider what to do, but you also need to work hard to NOT play hands the same time every time. Deception is a HUGE factor in being a quality player. You're trying to throw your opponents off. You're trying to get in their head. Frustrate them. How in the world could you possibly do that if you play hands by way of some formula. Can't be done.

Also, the world of quality poker is a world of probabilities. A very tricky world. You take into account the probability that you have the best hand. The chances of hitting a draw. The chances your opponent will fold. This all makes poker so interesting. So you need to keep a running sense in your head how often you performed certain moves and try to keep your proportion within a prescribed success range. As I've been thinking about poker and poker strategy, I figured a dozen or so detailed courses. But it wasn't even close. First one needs so to understand poker think. Then one needs to know how to play basic (ABC) poker. Then all the standard situations need to be reviewed and analyzed. That just lays the groundwork. Now we need to get into tournament poker. Then live, cash poker. Then advanced moves. By the time I was done, it was clear 60 to 70 hours (courses) of instruction would be necessary. I'm up to 13 courses on the site and I'm having a ball reaching back into my pedagogic grab bag and creating all kinds of content, exercises and interactions. At least 50 more on on the drawing board and are coming available at a rate of about 3 every two weeks. (That's why I'm offering unlimited access now for only $4.99/month. The offer is only available for the next few months or so. The price will be much higher later on.)

If you decide you want to be a great poker player, expect to put in hours and hours of study, work and practice. Some say you need ten years to get to the highest levels. I think you can get there much faster. But you have to be focused and motivated. But most importantly, you gotta love to play the game.