The Birth of a Company

After I sold my company, CEU.com, in December 2009, I thought I'd take some time to think. Think about life, family, friends, goals and, of course, my next business venture. I thought it'd take a while, but lo and behold, in a matter of months, I have not one but three ideas for my next Internet business. I'll only consider Internet businesses because its what I know, it doesn't require oodles of cash to get started, it comes with a free distribution and communication system, no inventory . . .

You may think that its all been done. But after taking some time to think, nothing could be further form the truth. Why? Because the Internet is constantly changing. New tools become ubiquitous (e.g. smart phones). New capacities are added (e.g.wireless broadband). People are using the web for new things. There are always new combinations waiting to be discovered. My biggest issue is editing my choices. I'll continue to offer advanced poker courses through PokerSlamU.com. That goes without saying. But I've been approached by experts in several fields and some investors, now it becomes an issue of matching and making decisions on where to focus my time and money.

But I can see why the entrepreneurial road isn't for everybody. There is no job security. You need to go with your ideas and live or die by your own hand. I have certainly found myself in many panicky situations. But when I come face-to-face with trouble or a hurdle, I've learned that they always seem insurmountable at first. Over time you find a series of solution options. You pick one. If that doesn't work, you pick another. One of the best pieces of advice I've ever gotten about this was from Bob Stupak, the founder of the Stratosphere Hotel in Las Vegas. "The most important thing for an entrepreneur is perseverence. Almost any company can be a success if you keep making appropriate changes and don't ever give up."

All In

What really makes hold em the poker game of the times is the All In move. Nothing is more exciting then when an athlete gives it everything they got or when a professional pushes the limit in their field. "Here it is," they say, "I'm ALL IN."

Poker brings the move to a high state of visualization. You only have so much ammunition. You've been ever so careful in building it up over the course of a tournament. But now you've put it all at risk by shoving every single chip you have at into the center of the table. It's double or nothing. It's do or die. I love it.

But the All In move is all about timing. Not just doing it when you have the nuts - the best possible hand in poker. That move is relatively easy. You can't lose, so why not. In fact that is NOT the best time, usually, to make the big move because most of the time, your opponent is going to fold and there is no value to be gained. I was just in a tournament where I saw the worst All In move in history. Its the table chip leader against the second in chips. Thge chip leader bets 5X the big blind pre-flop. The second chip leader calls. The flop comes out 10-10-4. The chip leader bets out 10X the big blind. The second chip leader goes all in and the leader folds. The second chip leader proudly shows the table pocket 10s. Ouch. A huge opportunity lost. He had position. He had an unbeatable hand. He could have easily doubled up. Horrible - just horrible play.

The All In move is about (1) getting called when you have the best hand; (2) protecting a lead in a hand; (3) forcing your opponent to call on the river because they feel they are priced in; and, most importantly (4) re-building your stack when you are short. Of course all these situations are shown in detail on my poker courses. Its all about feel. Its about creating a tight image, then making the move and forcing strong hands to fold. Or creating a loose image and getting medium strength hands to call. Its about deception. Making the move when you look desperate. Making the move on a player that is tilting. Doing it when you sense weakness. In poker the important thing is often not what you hold, but what is in your opponent's hand. So many opportunities that players let get away. Too many to go into all of them here.

Its a move that is to be used very sparingly early and early mid of a tournament. Why? Because the gain is small compared to the risk - getting eliminated.

I love that the "All In" phrase has popped up in general language. I see it in the newspapers. "Obama goes All In on Health Care." I see it professionally. My father, who is respected Pediatric Cardiologist, told his boss, "Either we fix our budget or I QUIT." He was certainly all in.

Good Luck with your all in bets. Make sure you're prepared. Your opponents are primed and, most importantly, make sure the risk/reward equation is in your favor.

The Art of the Bluff

Poker Skills are the same as business skills. Yeah. Yeah. Heard it a million times. Lets get to the specifics. Show me, don't tell me - the mantra of every good writer.

There is no better example than in the art of the bluff. Does he or doesn't he? Will she or won't she? Does he have it?

Many people see the bluff in isolation or out of context and think, "wow, that's neat. Bet a lot and your opponent folds." But in actuality, the professional bluff does not happen all of a sudden. It is a carefully built strategy that results in bluffs taking strategic pots. no one can win at poker by bluffing willy nilly. Its an extremely high risk move that costs you much more when you lose than it gains you when you win.

Now lets think about it in terms of business. A failed bluff can be very costly. "I'll quit if I don't get that raise." "That's my last and final offer." A professional at business uses this tool in very specific situations. First, he must size up his opponent. Is she a risk taker? Does he exaggerate? Does she lie?

Secondly, he needs to understand the importance of the deal to himself or his company. A systematic Cost/Benefit Analysis is needed. If its critical, tread carefully. If there are other options, can be more aggressive.

Thirdly, is the bluff bordering on unethical behavior. In the end, your opponent will often learn the true state of things. If you cross the line you jeopardize future deals with that and other agents. A much underrated concern is that if you go to far, you'll have to live with your unethical act for a long time if not, if its flagrant enough, for the rest of your life.

In poker, the same issues are involved. A reckless bluffer will get called more often and see a net loss on his annual ledger. An unethical bluffer (certain comments, motions etc.), will label the player and the person (the game often extends beyond the boundaries of the felt) as untrustworthy. Bluffing the wrong type of player or in the wrong situations are huge net losers in the long term.

A bluff is the culmination of a story. You build your reputation at the table. Playing selective hands takes the frequency tell out of the equation. Never show your cards to build this image. Uncertainty is the pro's best friend. Then you look for the ideal situation:

• Semi-bluff whenever possible
  
• Attack the ABC player
• Look for bona fide weakness
• Pay attention to patterns in their game
• Bet enough (too much is much better than too little)
• Look for positional advantage

There is much much much more to consider and talk about in bluffing strategy. On my site, I give many examples and rate the quality of the bluffing situation. Soon it will become second nature. You'll know that there are situations that your opponent will know he most likely has the best hand, but he absolutely cannot call. The risk is to large. This knowledge and ability is probably the single most important skill that separates the pro from the amatuer.

In the end (without counting continuation bets), you should be bluffing no more than three or four times a session. And four times is too much. But be aware. Once they start to see what you are doing modify. On top of that, your personality, ethical backbone and understanding of the type of players you are up against skews the strategy accordingly. What a great frickin' game!

Luck?!?!!????

Very interesting things I've been hearing about the concept of luck. This post falls under the category of poker imitating life or is it the other way around?

Bill Gates was asked; "To what extent was it just pure luck that Microsoft became as big as powerful as it did?" His response was that luck played a big part. It was luck that he developed computer skills as a youth instead of some other skill such as tiddlywinks. It was luck that he hooked up with the perfect partner. It was luck that he got into the marketplace just as the personal computer was taking off.

Sergei Brin was asked to what extent was luck the reason Google got as big as it has gotten. He answered that it was lucky that he found the perfect partner. It was lucky that he got into the market at the right time. etc.

All the time we hear that luck is so important in poker. Sure its important. Its important in every human endeavor. There is no getting around the fact that much of human course depends on factors that are not in that humans control. i.e. luck comes into play. Now is it 100% luck that Gates and Brin were successful? No, of course not. They were good at the skills they needed and were hard working and creative. But those factors alone do not guarantee success by any stretch. You gotta have a little luck. The more the better.

Then it comes to how you define luck. Is it luck (bad) that I lose all my chips to a loose player when I have the second nut flush when he's got the nut flush. Well kinda. But I was never ahead and many would argue that I was outplayed to certain extent. But luck was a certainly a factor.

More often we think of luck when we are ahead in the hand. Top set against a straight draw kinda thing. But this is the weakness of the unpatient, inexperienced player. Luck happens. My favorite player handling luck is Chris "Jesus" Ferguson. I've seen him lose with a full ouse on the flop to a runner runner higher full house (1:90 Leader). He simply stood up, shook his opponents hand with a smile and walked off. Which is all you can do and all you should do. Your job as a poker player is to get your money in good. i.e. when the odds are in your favor. Then let the probabilities do their thing. You'll win in direct proportion to these odds, which means, more often you will win.

So come on already. Stop sweating the bad beats. They'll happen. And they'll keep those weak players coming back.

Thinking about Time

Do you ever start thinking about a concept and the more you think about it the more mysterious and unknown it becomes? Lately I've been thinking about the concept of time.

I have always noticed (and I'm sure you have noticed it too) how time does not always seem to move at the same pace. When I'm in a good poker game, for instance, time seems to go by quickly. When I'm immersed in a writing project, time moves even quicker. When I'm waiting in the Thai restaurant for my take out order, time slows way down. But is that time itself or how we are perceiving time? Maybe time is only a perception.

But time itself is measured in increments that are supposed to be very specific. Did you know that the "second" is

the duration of 9,192,631,770 periods of the radiation corresponding to the transition between the two hyperfine levels of the ground state of the caesium 133 atom.

It used to be 1/86,400 of one rotation of the earth. Don't ask me how they came up with that. Why 1/86,400 and not 1/100,000? I'm sure the original development of the second was the average time for a human heart to beat once or the touch football concept of saying the word "Mississippi." Then they backed that period of time into the time of the earth to rotate. In any case, this wasn't working out anyway because the time it takes the earth to rotate is lengthening. Our days are getting longer. (Another strange concept.)

The real problem with all these approaches is that time in actuality could be moving faster or slower at different intervals. We can use man-made (artificial) devices to measure it, but we have no idea whether we are accurate.

I was playing at the Borgata the other day and I suffered a bad beat and lost my stake. The usual situation when a set on the flop gets blasted by a flush drawn on the river. Now the first sensation is pain. (I never continue playing after this happens, by the way, and I don't recommend it since poker is a very mental game and your mental state is not ideal.) But as time goes on, the pain dissipates. And it dissipates at different rates for different people. This makes me think that time might be individually based. After all, don't older people feel time as moving faster than young people. The theory being that the unit of time is a much smaller percentage of their entire life span lived so far. Won't a mosquito feel (if a mosquito can "feel.") time very slowly since their entire life span is only a few weeks? So time is relative. Right? But that doesn't really work because time is a universal concept. This brings us to Einstein's Theory of Relativity. Time must have a duel nature.

Which led me to believe that time might be controllable in a certain sense by the individual. We can choose to live fast and make time move fast. But that doesn't make sense to me because why would we want to hasten the time to the day we die. Don't we want time to go slow, so we can savor life and all its amenities?

So I've decided that I will control time. I will take things slow, I'll contemplate my surroundings. I'll enjoy those times when time seems to fall away, but I'll try to savor them to the maximum. I don't think we can ever really understand how time moves. It's just one of those mysteries of life that along with many others that keep me thinking.

Its Over!! . . . Now Back to Business

I'm sure you have all been at the edge of your seats wondering what happened to Neal Gersony's company. Did it sell? Did the purchase fall through? Well it's good news. On December 24th, CEU.com was sold for cash. We do have a few small clean up issues regarding a shareholder who believes we may have booked his share ownership wrong. (It never seems to end.) But the money has been sent out and I'm now the proud owner of no shares of CEU.com and a resigned Board Member to boot.

The first few days after the sale have been a bit hazy. I've been at it for so long. There is a loss of groundedness feeling that has left me feeling like a drifting soul in an endless universe. But isn't that we actually are anyway? Am I not feeling the true feelings of "humanness?" I can do what I want now, I suppose, though the money won't last forever. Its not the big bucks (less then a million) that you hear about in the business pages of The New York Times. But it is reassuring to know there is a big cushion there for my four kids and wife.

So what's next? Well its time to fulfill some of my dreams. We are looking into living on an island off the coast of New Jersey (something I've always wanted to try). I plan to take up sailing. Do some traveling; NYC tomorrow; Philadelphia in a few weeks; Arizona at the end of January; LA in February; Florida in March; a big trip with my middle daughter in April . . . I also plan on getting back into the tournament circuit a little bit - mostly concentrating on Atlantic City + maybe the Main Event (except I usually go camping in the Adirondacks in July). Also might do some painting/sculpture as well as write of course. I have a second novel in the works as well as a detailed "Anatomy of a Tech Start-up" nonfiction book that is just underway.

As one of my favorite running backs of all time said after his retirement, Calvin Hill. "Life is a smorgasbord. You finish one item, its time to try something else." I'm ready to try some new things.

As far as venturing goes, I have an idea for operating a sailing and motor boat co-ownership program on Brigantine Island. I have a ways to go on that one. I also am planning some major additions to my poker course site - stay tuned. Be well all.

Couldn't be Closer to Closing

I never like to go more than a week without blogging. Need to keep regularity in my life and those of my readers. But this week, things really started heating up with the sale of my Internet company.

Its been an emotional roller coaster like you wouldn't believe. The CEO wants to stay on, then he doesn't, then he wants to consult. My senior IT guy doesn't like the Non-Compete contract. The buyers are throwing deadlines at us. People are making promises that aren't being kept. OhMyGoshness . . .

I now have to deal with my closest colleague who is purporting something that isn't. Excuse the vagueness, but these are very confidential and touchy proceedings and I don't want to disclose anything I shouldn't be. It's the nature of the beast. You should be satisfied that you are getting this much. After everything is all said and done, I'll provide you with some of the juicy details.

But my philosophy continues to be - take the high road. Fore go some cash, add on some risk . . . whatever. If my mind is free of negativity its worth it.

The good news is that I was told today that we have a very good chance of closing before Xmas and what a Merry Christmas (even though I'm Jewish) it could be this year. Mazel Tov Jesus!