The Big Game

Barack Obama plays poker. By all accounts, he seems to love the game. Now that he is officially President, lets analyze his playing style. How one plays poker says much about the kind of a person he is.

From all the accounts I could find, the president is what we in the poker world would call "a rock." He never enters a pot with a mediocre or worse hand. He waits patiently for a playable hand. When he is in, many of his fellow lawmakers (his opponents) say, he is a fiscal conservative. If he is confronted with a big bet and his hand did not improve or did not improve much, he'll fold. He doesn't chase straights or flushes. He simply bows out and looks for a better spot to get his money in. Once in a great while, he'll bluff and it seems he is almost always effective when he does so. But for the most part, his opponents say "when Barack is in a hand, he's usually got the goods."

To me, it seems the President is an intermediate player. Beginners are tempted to chase cards. They stay in a hand as long as there are some cards that could come out that would make them a winner. They fall in love with big starting hands and are slow to give them up. Pros love these players because they sweeten the pots and they lose most of them. Our President seems to understand this propensity. I would say he is more of an "ABC" player. He bases most of his decisions on the odds, the mathematical part of poker. If the odds say that he most likely has the best hand, he'll bet or call or even raise. Otherwise he mucks.

I think this bodes well for our country. We want a leader who is calculating, careful and fiscally conservative. We want someone who steps out only when he is sure that he is right. If it turned out that the President bluffed a lot, that would be bad. The bluff is a weapon that should be used sparingly and only when you have built a convincing story around that bluff. President Obama seems to understand that. He bluffs when he knows his opponents cannot call. I like that. It's the first step to moving his playing skills to the next level. Really good players find just the right proportion between playing ABC and bluffing. Just enough so that your really big hands get called and just enough so that the bluffs are folded to. This could be the toughest skill to master. Right now, it seems Mr. President bluffs too little.

I'm a little concerned that the President doesn't play the players as much as he could. In big games, this is critical. If your playing a loose, wild player, try to have the goods, but the goods don't have to be as good as you would need against a tight player (like the President). I hope the President focuses more on the psychological side of the game as he pursues poker greatness. Think more about who he is up against and slightly less about the cards he is holding. Think of the game as on a sliding scale constantly modulating your moves based on what you think your opponents are thinking. Confuse them. Play with their head. Keep them off guard. Don't always do what is expected.

But most crucially, please Mr. President, don't go "all in" unless it is absolutely necessary. I'm sure George Bush would like to have his all in bet back against Iraq. Oh, one more thing Mr. President, don't forget to read my earlier blog on how to fix the economy. You're welcome.